Wednesday 9 November 2011

Investing in fundamentals

This week’s housing market reports and predictions are as contradictory as they are arbitrary, which is de riguer in an uncertain world.

In times of uncertainty, investments in fundamentals are seen as a safer haven. Concerns over European leaders being able to tame the sovereign-debt crisis have further boosted demand for gold as a safe haven investment. Spot gold prices reached $1,804.10 an ounce, a seven-week high, in yesterday's trading in New York.
Farmland prices have almost doubled in the past five years and are somewhere around 5% higher than a year ago. Over the past 10 years agricultural land has grown 204%; which is twice the increase shown in London property prices and notably above the 6% growth experienced by the FTSE 100 during the decade. Even best English shotguns have been targeted by investors with record prices being paid and valuations rising around 3-5% a year.

Residential property, however, which is as fundamental an investment as most of us own, is, it appears not the darling of the press it once was. It is cheaper to buy than to rent. Yet, we seem to have become immune to the charms of historically low mortgage rates and the opportunities as differentials gaps narrow.

Rising commodity and fuel prices have exerted growing pressures on household incomes. But there are waiting lists across some of the quality marques for their latest range of smaller SUVs. A client tells me track side, bookmakers have reported as much as a 20% increase in takings, certainly Ladbrokes’ recent quarterly results showed a 2.5% increase over the same period last year.

The property market in Hampshire is frustrated. We have any number of excellent buyers but a steady flow of fresh properties coming to the market is being hampered by media sentiment and a feeling that perhaps it is better to wait until spring. All of this is quite understandable but our mailing lists are full of purchasers who have see the light of buying in this climate.

November, whilst not a classic time to launch a sale, offers the backdrop of an autumnal landscape and the focus of Christmas. Yet the mild weather and turning shades has given us some wonderful days. Both rivers and the countryside teem with life and entomological hatches are still a valuable food source. Game feeders provide further food for over wintering song birds and skeins of geese can be heard at dusk as they return to the safety of the river from a day’s grazing. The clocks changing gives a welcome sunrise to us early dog walkers and it is not cold enough yet for a winter coat. But as surely as night follows day, winter is close by. If the weather patterns of the past few years are repeated, we may have to wait a long time until spring. Whilst autumn can feel like a prelude to the main event , we must be careful what we wish for. Perhaps the thing that is most missed by those who leave our island for warmer climes, are the seasons. This year, mother nature has excelled herself with the loveliest autumn display. Jack frost, surely cannot be far away.

Matthew Hallett
Partner

Head of Residential Sales, Winchester

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