Wednesday 7 May 2014

The British bull market on the turn...

The bull market in British Agriculture may now be on the turn. As the wider economy starts to improve commodity prices look as though they are easing.

As predicted a few weeks ago, milk prices are beginning to fall – whether this is due to falling world markets or supermarket milk prices wars is not clear, but this week alone we have seen Arla drop their milk price by 1.27p/litre while Muller Wiseman has dropped its price by 1.6p/litre and First Milk by 2p/ litre from 2nd June.

Similarly beef prices are easing. The deadweight price for beef has dropped to around 355p/kg which is over 40p/kg less than a year ago while beef prices in the supermarkets have continued to increase, reducing the proportion of the retail price received by farmers from 60% this time last year to just over 51% today.

As far as arable farmers are concerned, wheat prices have also fallen from around £190/t a year ago to under £165/t today and oilseed rape prices by £70/t, from £374/t a year ago to £304/t today.

So it seems all sectors are feeling a chill breeze although it has to be remembered prices are falling from record levels in some instances. Even so one begins to wonder whether we are beginning to see a trend in reduced agricultural commodity prices as the world economy starts to pick up in the wake of the dramatic events of 2007/08 which shook the financial industry to its core.

It is often said that the agricultural economy is counter-cyclical to the wider economy and so after seven years of famine in the latter, maybe we are about to enter a similar period in the former. This may be being alarmist but there is definitely a feeling that we have seen the best of commodity prices for the time being.

This is also a reflection of the fact that the price farmers receive for their produce in this country is now very heavily influenced by world commodity markets. For instance the political instability we have seen in the Ukraine in recent months has to an extent bolstered the price of wheat as traders in world markets have reacted to fears that these troubles may impact on the supply of wheat from the Ukraine which is one of the world’s significant wheat producing areas.

So, a farmer’s profitability is only in part dictated by their skill in animal and crop husbandry or their general business acumen; it is the state of world markets and the vagaries of foreign exchange markets which is likely to have as great if not greater influence on the success or otherwise of a farming business.


James Stephen MRICS FAAV
Partner
Rural Practice Chartered Surveyor, Wells

T: 01749 683381
E: james.stephen@carterjonas.co.uk

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