Monday 2 November 2015

The hokey cokey referendum

We’ve now entered what commentators are calling ‘a phoney war’ in what could be a two year long run-up to the referendum on European Union (EU) membership which is to take place before the end of 2017.

Unlike the 2014 Scottish Independence referendum, the question on the ballot paper won’t be ‘Yes’ or ‘No’. It will be ‘Stay’ or ‘Leave’.

The campaign groups don’t fall in to the convenient polarities of pro-business versus anti-business or the political groupings of left and right and so, we,  the electorate are not going to be allowed to be lazy in our thinking about this referendum and the consequences of its outcome. 

It is a referendum which will see voices of business line up on both sides and some, in all likelihood, stuck in the middle seeing convincing commercial and policy arguments on both sides.  

It’s not just any old referendum either. It’s a referendum in which the ex-boss of Marks and Spencer, Lord (Stuart) Rose is heading up the ‘Stay’ campaign.  The complexity of the issues is reflected in the make up of the ‘Go’ camp which has two main campaign groups in profile: ‘Vote Leave’ and ‘Leave.EU’. All three groups got under starters orders in October.

‘Vote Leave’ sees formal Conservative and Labour ‘Brexit’ groupings come together in an umbrella membership which hosts individuals with UKIP credentials too. ‘Leave.EU’ positions itself as a more grass-roots movement and the financial sector experience and entrepreneurial business-chops of its ‘ambassadors’ are showcased on its website’s home page.

Confusingly - and refreshingly - both ‘Stay’ and ‘Leave’ are happy to admit to being the patriotic choice. It is to be hoped that the absence of jingoism in the course of the pre-vote debate and the actual ballot itself remains because the presence of national stereotypes does nothing for the clarity of thought we require in making our decision.

At this early stage of the publicity campaigns, there appears to be an absence of ideology too with more of an emphasis on pragmatism. Upon launch, Lord Rose was keen to highlight that the ‘Stay’ campaign was critical of the European Union and voting to remain in the EU was the best way to reform it for the good of the UK.

Leave’s arguments point to the benefits and flexibility of financial and policy independence in the modern world pitted against the inflexibility that being in a single currency imposed on countries like Greece in dealing with the fall out from the financial crisis of 2008. In making the case for Brexit, some free marketeers point to the fact that Euro currency countries could not make their own sovereign case to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to re-finance debt which might have set them in better stead to weather their stormy financial situation.

While shaking it all about when it comes to Britain’s future, this referendum campaign is also stirring up times past.

The 1975 referendum to stay or leave the European Economic Community (EEC) brought together some strange bedfellows in Prime Minister Harold Wilson and the Leader of the Oppostion, the Rt Hon Margaret Thatcher MP backing the ‘Yes’ campaign.  While supporters of internationalism – which, at the time, included high profile members of the Cabinet in Tony Benn and Michael Foot – were opposed to remaining in the EEC.

Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose as the saying goes.


Will Mooney MRICS
Partner

Commercial, Cambridge

No comments: